Nearing the conclusion of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is planning to win a third consecutive term. Important battleground states, including Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, and Odisha, would be very important in deciding the result of the election. Here’s a closer look at five crucial states and how they might affect the outcome of the election.
Bihar: An Uphill Battle for the BJP
With a 54% vote share in the 2019 elections, the BJP took 39 of the 40 seats in Bihar. However, given the current political unrest, it appears difficult to duplicate this performance in 2024. The projected support for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s return to the NDA has not materialised, and his constant political vacillations have damaged his reputation. Analysts predict that voter discontent and anti-incumbency sentiment, especially among young voters, may fracture the JD’s core support, hurting the BJP’s chances. The BJP is trying to lessen the impact of possible losses, but it looks like it will be hard to match its prior total.
West Bengal: A Decisive Battleground
With 18 seats won against the TMC’s 22 in West Bengal in 2019, the BJP made considerable progress there. The BJP wants to get more seats in the state by emphasising its robust support from voters. It has been challenging to remove TMC chief Mamata Banerjee, despite a vigorous campaign. The way the BJP performs in West Bengal is crucial because victories there might balance out defeats in other states. Although PM Modi has stated that he is confident in becoming the state’s greatest gainer, the TMC’s base still presents a significant obstacle.
Odisha: Direct Contest with BJD
The Biju Janata Dal (BJD), in power in Odisha, is facing off against the Bharatiya Janata Dal (BJP). Out of 21 seats, the BJP won eight in 2019 while the BJD won twelve. Though there have been talks of an alliance, each party is now running on its own. Taking advantage of PM Modi’s popularity and the ground network of the RSS, analysts predict that the BJP will win more than 15 seats this time. Significant obstacles are presented, nonetheless, by Naveen Patnaik’s charismatic leadership and the BJD’s sizable voting base.
Maharashtra: Complex Political Landscape
The 2019 elections saw a substantial shift in Maharashtra’s political landscape with the BJP-led NDA securing 41 out of 48 seats. A complex political landscape has been formed by the divisions among the Shiv Sena and NCP. The major sections of these parties, headed by Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde, respectively, now back the BJP. The BJP intends to replicate its past success, but there is an element of unpredictability due to the state’s murky politics and voters’ reactions to party divisions.
BJP’s Overall Strategy and Challenges
The BJP has won most of the seats in previous elections, therefore it does well in straight-up contests against the Congress. The BJP has more serious obstacles in states where it is directly competing with regional parties. For the BJP to have a chance, the four battleground states of West Bengal, Odisha, Maharashtra, and Bihar—which together hold 151 seats—are crucial. In order to minimise possible losses and work towards a majority, the party is anticipated to make use of its strongholds and coalitions.
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